Berne Union & ICISA Business Confidence Index 2026 H2

Berne Union and ICISA members report record optimism on medium and long-term demand, driven by energy, defence and digital infrastructure, even with volumes already at record levels. Short-term demand remains positive but cooling, supported by AI-related supply chains and agriculture. Claims expectations continue to point upwards across both products, with geopolitical risk the dominant concern.

Members expect MLT demand to rise across energy, mining and defence, supported by expanding ECA mandates and, for private insurers, banks financing the AI-related data centre build-out.

ST business growth is expected to continue but at a slower pace, with rising export volumes and heightened risk perception offset by tight buyer budgets and competitive pricing in a soft market.

Both business lines point to higher claims. Private insurers are the more cautious, reverting from an unusually benign 2025, while public providers report continuation of existing African sovereign cases rather than new deterioration.

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