Export Credit & Investment insurance

Industry trends 2025

Annual report of the export credit and investment business of Berne Union members, reflecting key figures, regional and sector splits, claims and recoveries by business line, as reported by the members

NEW TRADE SUPPORTED 

3,714 US$ bn

+12% y/y

ST TRADE INSURED

3,345 US$ bn

+11% y/y

MLT NEW BUSINESS

231 US$ bn

+17% y/y

TOTAL CLAIMS PAID

11,107 US$ mn

+17% y/y

 Section 01

Executive summary

 1.1 BUSINESS SUPPORTED

BU members provide record levels of international trade support in 2025
Business levels reach a historic high, with overall volumes driven by the continued expansion of ST Business alongside increasing private insurer capacity, the expansion of ECA support programmes and more active multilateral provision of insurance and guarantees.

Longer-term MLT structural shifts emerge
With three consecutive years of strong MLT underwriting, the post-pandemic composition of business has become clearer. Developed markets are seeing higher demand as the industry supports the energy transition – through battery giga-factories, nuclear and traditional renewables – while members continue to provide broad support across emerging markets.

MLT Export Credit becomes increasingly concentrated in mega-transactions
A continuation of large cruise ships and defence transactions alongside mega-projects in the energy transition space (nuclear, offshore wind) drives MLT Export Credit cover to a record high at USD 222bn.

ECAs continue to launch new credit products, as deployed capacity grows in untied support
With ECA MLT General new business rising 33% YoY to USD 32bn, as some ECAs seek broader mandates to cover untied support, ECA exposure under MLT General support (includes untied) has almost doubled since 2019 – while MLT Export Credit exposure remains broadly stable.

ST Business expansion driven by key member activity
While ST Instalment business remains broadly stable, ST Revolving credit expands overall to USD 3.3tn in trade support due to increasing cover from key members while utilisation lags marginally.

Contrasting dynamics in PRI
Political Risk Insurance (PRI) activity displayed divergent trends across the membership. Reduced volumes from high‑volume ECAs and softer demand elsewhere led total new PRI cover to contract by 19% to USD 35bn, from already subdued levels. In contrast, private insurers and multilaterals recorded smaller but more resilient volumes.

Private Insurance deployed capacity continues to expand as Multilaterals take increasing interest in contingent instruments
New MLT & PRI business expanded by USD 13.6bn YoY to 78.2bn in 2025 for Private Insurers and Multilaterals. New entrants in the CPRI market, alongside expanding deployed capacity, support greater levels of underwriting with exceptionally broad coverage across the globe as Multilaterals turn to Insurance & Guarantee products to crowd-in private capital.

Figure 1: New trade supported by product line, US$ bn

 1.2 CLAIMS AND RECOVERIES

Claims climb to record highs, heavily distorted by two key events
Total claims breached USD 11bn, the highest on record, but this does not reflect a broad deterioration in credit. Instead, claims paid values are dominated by particularly large outliers, including a spike in Zambian MLT claims, ongoing sanction-related claims to Russian entities and a significant expropriation claim. Claims paid following recent Sovereign distress in emerging markets would have otherwise contracted YoY.

Transportation claims return to pre-pandemic levels
Beyond the large outlier claims, claims composition continues to shift, with aviation-related Transportation claims declining to pre-pandemic levels as recoveries rise – concluding the through-the-cycle where the industry supported a faster recovery for this crucial sector.

Figure 2: Claims paid, US$ mn

Recoveries jump, yet to materialise from recent sovereign distress with few exceptions
Recoveries increase by USD 523m to USD 3.3bn but generally remain limited from recent sovereign distress cases – suggesting further recovery action is yet to come with significant progress made under sovereign restructuring frameworks.

 Section 02

Short-term

 2.1. ST TRADE INSURED

ST Trade Volumes Continue to Dominate, While Growth in Revolving Cover Moderates
Short-term business continued to dwarf other product lines, with ST policies supporting USD 3.3tn of trade. Activity remains highly concentrated, with 82% of total cover provided by the four largest providers, all of whom recorded further expansion in their portfolios. Overall ST cover increased by a robust 14% year‑on‑year, underlining the continued centrality of revolving products in facilitating global trade flows.

Despite this strong headline growth, utilisation edged down slightly, as the 14% rise in cover translated into a comparatively lower 12% increase in trade supported. Reported values were also materially influenced by foreign‑exchange movements between end‑2024 and end‑2025, most notably the depreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies, which generally inflated reported volumes. When adjusting for these FX effects, growth in ST Revolving Credit cover slowed to 8%, signalling a moderation in expansion compared with recent years.

Figure 2.1: Turnover business supported with ST insurance, US$ bn

Figure 2.2: ST supported turnover and global merchandise trade values (2019=100)

 2.2. SECTORAL SPLIT

Sectoral Breakdown Highlights Broad‑Based Growth, Led by Manufacturing
In addition to total volumes of trade supported, Berne Union members report insured activity by exporter sector, enabling a detailed view of evolving structural trends across industries. This sectoral perspective provides important insight into how patterns of trade support are shifting over time.
In 2025, aggregated data point to a broad‑based expansion across most major exporting sectors. Growth, however, remains firmly anchored in manufacturing‑related activities, which continue to account for the largest share of insured volumes and to drive the overall increase in trade supported.

Figure 2.3: ST trade supported by sector, 2023-2025, US$ bn

 2.3. COMMITMENTS

ST Revolving Credit Limits Rise, Though FX Effects Inflate Headline Growth
By the end of 2025, Berne Union members reported aggregate outstanding credit limits of USD 2.58tn for short‑term revolving business. This represents a modest increase of USD 39bn (+1.5%) over the preceding six months and a more substantial year‑on‑year rise of USD 317bn (+14%), continuing the upward trend in available ST capacity.
However, headline growth figures were materially affected by foreign‑exchange movements. The pronounced depreciation of the US dollar over the course of 2025, particularly during the first half of the year, has amplified reported increases when expressed in USD terms, suggesting that underlying growth in credit limits was more moderate than nominal figures imply.

Figure 2.4: Commitments by product line, US$ bn

Table 2.1: Top ST business markets for New Commitments over 2025, US$ mn

Africa
 Americas
 Asia & Oceania
 Europe

South Africa
 14,374
 18%
United States
 307,553
 55%
China
 67,017
 11%
Germany
 180,802
 14%

Morocco
 12,704
 16%
Brazil
 50,823
 9%
Hong Kong
 59,069
 9%
United Kingdom
 117,752
 9%

Egypt
 8,723
 11%
Mexico
 50,074
 9%
India
 57,715
 9%
Italy
 117,153
 9%

Algeria
 7,631
 9%
Canada
 40,489
 7%
Singapore
 53,738
 9%
France
 115,013
 9%

Nigeria
 3,757
 5%
Chile
 15,876
 3%
UAE
 43,884
 7%
Spain
 101,173
 8%
Rest
 33,842
 42%
 Rest
 93,723
 17%
 Rest
 347,486
 55%
 Rest
 700,778
 53%
Total
 81,030
 Total
 558,539
 Total
 628,910
 Total
 1,332,672

 2.4. CLAIMS PAID

ST Revolving Claims Rise in Line with Expanding Underwriting, While Instalment Claims Remain Isolated
Claims paid under ST revolving policies increased by USD 478m to USD 1.4bn in 2025, continuing the steady upward trend observed since 2021. This rise does not point to a deterioration in portfolio performance; rather, it largely reflects a natural catch‑up following the substantial expansion in underwriting under ST revolving products in recent years. Since 2019, credit extended under ST revolving policies has increased by 56%, while claims paid have risen by only 7%, highlighting the continued resilience of the underlying risk profile.
In 2025, ST revolving claims increased across a broad range of markets, with 72 of 115 markets reporting higher claims payments. Growth was particularly pronounced in the largest market, the United States, where claims rose by 28% (+USD 380m). In contrast, ST instalment claims remain highly idiosyncratic, characterised by low‑value crystallisations linked to specific risks on individual transactions, rather than broad‑based or systemic trends.

Figure 2.5: Claims paid by ST product line, US$ mn

Table 2.2: Top ST markets for Claims Paid over 2025, US$ mn

Africa
 Americas
 Asia & Oceania
 Europe

Egypt
 29
 16%
United States
 381
 48%
UAE
 112
 16%
Italy
 108
 13%

Morocco
 23
 12%
Brazil
 120
 15%
India
 97
 14%
Germany
 107
 13%

Ghana
 18
 10%
Mexico
 53
 7%
Saudi Arabia
 69
 10%
Spain
 70
 9%

South Africa
 16
 8%
Canada
 51
 6%
Korea Rep.
 48
 7%
United Kingdom
 57
 7%

Cote d'Ivoire
 13
 7%
Colombia
 43
 5%
Indonesia
 45
 6%
Poland
 52
 6%
Rest
 86
 47%
 Rest
 147
 19%
 Rest
 329
 47%
 Rest
 416
 51%
Total
 184
 Total
 795
 Total
 699
 Total
 810

 Section 03

Medium and Long term

 3.1 MLT NEW BUSINESS

MLT Commitments Reach New High Amid Shifting Demand and Expanding Private Capacity
New MLT commitments rose to a record USD 230.9bn in 2025, representing a significant 17.7% increase on the previous year. Demand continues to be increasingly shaped by the strategic priorities of advanced economies, with growth concentrated in defence, energy security, and projects linked to the energy transition, reinforcing the evolving strategic role of ECA‑backed finance.
At the same time, the private CPRI market further extended its footprint, accounting for around one quarter of total MLT business during the year. Ongoing capacity deployment has supported a broader range of transactions, with the build‑out of digital infrastructure emerging as a particularly important recent driver of private market activity.

Figure 3.1: New Business, US$ bn

Table 3.1: Top MLT business markets for New Commitments over 2025, US$ mn

Africa
 Americas
 Asia & Oceania
 Europe

Cote d'Ivoire
 4,330
 18%
United States
 44,089
 67%
Saudi Arabia
 7,133
 13%
United Kingdom
 14,043
 17%

Angola
 3,520
 14%
Canada
 3,946
 6%
UAE
 5,718
 11%
Türkiye
 12,437
 15%

Tanzania
 2,568
 11%
Chile
 3,944
 6%
Indonesia
 5,544
 10%
Poland
 12,007
 14%

Egypt
 2,512
 10%
Brazil
 3,734
 6%
Singapore
 5,038
 9%
Germany
 9,882
 12%

Nigeria
 1,426
 6%
Panama
 1,902
 3%
Uzbekistan
 4,192
 8%
Serbia
 4,827
 6%
Rest
 10,076
 41%
 Rest
 7,957
 12%
 Rest
 26,562
 49%
 Rest
 31,759
 37%
Total
 24,431
 Total
 65,571
 Total
 54,188
 Total
 84,956

 3.2 MLT CLAIMS PAID

MLT Claims Ease, Though Sovereign Losses Continue to Shape Outcomes
MLT claims paid amounted to USD 5.4bn in 2025, representing a decline of 8.4% compared to 2024, while recoveries received totalled USD 2.6bn over the period. Claims experience remained heavily influenced by legacy factors, notably the continuation of losses stemming from the wave of sovereign defaults between 2020 and 2023, ongoing sanctions that continue to impede repayments from Russian obligors, and a limited number of idiosyncratic commercial losses.

Sovereign‑related claims remained particularly concentrated, with Zambia, Ghana, Ethiopia and Sri Lanka together accounting for USD 2.9bn of claims paid. These payments extend the loss cycles associated with each country’s default and continue to weigh on aggregate MLT claims performance, even as the overall level of claims moderated year‑on‑year.

Figure 3.2: MLT Claims paid, US$ mn

Table 3.2: Top MLT markets for Commercial Claims Paid over 2025, US$ mn

Africa
 Americas
 Asia & Oceania
 Europe

Zambia
 1,336
 67%
Mexico
 204
 48%
Iraq
 360
 53%
Sweden
 234
 47%

Ghana
 257
 13%
Brazil
 49
 12%
Sri Lanka
 103
 15%
Russia
 79
 16%

Ethiopia
 225
 11%
Panama
 48
 11%
China
 39
 6%
Norway
 50
 10%

Djibouti
 68
 3%
Suriname
 35
 8%
Uzbekistan
 32
 5%
Türkiye
 50
 10%

Gabon
 31
 2%
Cuba
 22
 5%
Laos
 29
 4%
United Kingdom
 34
 7%
Rest
 84
 4%
 Rest
 63
 15%
 Rest
 110
 16%
 Rest
 55
 11%
Total
 2,001
 Total
 420
 Total
 674
 Total
 502

 Section 04

Political risk

 4.1 PRI NEW BUSINESS

PRI Activity Remains Subdued Amid Broad‑Based Decline in Demand
New Political Risk Insurance (PRI) cover declined by 18.4% to USD 34.5bn in 2025, marking a further divergence from the record levels of activity seen elsewhere in the MLT market and extending a period of subdued demand for the product. The contraction was most pronounced among ECAs, where new PRI cover fell sharply by 27.3% to USD 21.9bn, with each of the larger providers reporting lower volumes than in 2024.
Private insurers also saw a pullback in new business, with cover declining by 10.4% to USD 7.5bn, despite an expanded Berne Union member base. The reduction was concentrated geographically, led by weaker activity in Europe and East Asia-Pacific, underscoring the uneven nature of PRI demand across regions.

Figure 4.1: PRI New Business, US$ bn

Regional trends

Regional trends continue to reflect the influence of a small number of markets and the specific members active within them. With the decline in 2025 broad‑based across sectors, providers, and geographies, no single regional or sectoral driver explains the overall fall in volumes. Latin America and the Caribbean recorded a decline to USD 7.6bn at an aggregate level, although investment cover for Natural Resources and Manufacturing increased within the region.
The only region to register growth was Russia and the CIS, where new PRI cover rose by 40.0% to USD 1.5bn. This increase was supported by sizeable investment transactions, notably in Uzbekistan (USD 888m) and Kazakhstan (USD 460m), offsetting the otherwise broad contraction in PRI activity globally.

Table 4.1: Top PRI business markets for New Commitments over 2025, US$ mn

Africa
 Americas
 Asia & Oceania
 Europe

Egypt
 2,104
 31%
Peru
 1,872
 23%
Indonesia
 4,468
 25%
Türkiye
 1,756
 22%

Zambia
 617
 9%
Argentina
 1,591
 19%
Viet Nam
 2,081
 11%
Ukraine
 1,218
 15%

Congo (DRC)
 590
 9%
Mexico
 1,418
 17%
Thailand
 1,589
 9%
Serbia
 943
 12%

Kenya
 539
 8%
Brazil
 951
 11%
China
 1,483
 8%
Luxembourg
 761
 10%

Nigeria
 398
 6%
United States
 547
 7%
Uzbekistan
 888
 5%
Germany
 400
 5%
Rest
 2,588
 38%
 Rest
 1,923
 23%
 Rest
 7,725
 42%
 Rest
 2,832
 36%
Total
 6,835
 Total
 8,303
 Total
 18,235
 Total
 7,910

Table 4.2: Top PRI & MLT markets for Political Claims Paid over 2025, US$ mn

Africa
 Americas
 Asia & Oceania
 Europe

Ghana
 566
 54%
Cuba
 60
 72%
Sri Lanka
 147
 65%
Russia
 3,095
 98%

Ethiopia
 266
 25%
Venezuela
 19
 23%
Thailand
 52
 23%
Ukraine
 62
 2%

Zambia
 101
 10%
Suriname
 3
 4%
Iran
 19
 8%
Türkiye
 6
 0%

Niger
 47
 4%
Argentina
 1
 1%
Myanmar
 5
 2%
Romania
 0.2
 0%

Gabon
 37
 3%
Honduras
 0.1
 0%
Papua New Guinea
 2
 1%
 -
 -
 -
Rest
 38
 4%
 Rest
 0.01
 0%
 Rest
 3
 1%
 Rest
 -
 -
Total
 1,055
 Total
 82
 Total
 227
 Total
 3,162

 Section 05

Other products

 5.1 DOMESTIC ST & EXPORT SUPPORT

33 ECAs provided USD 61bn of new Domestic ST & Export Support in 2025 with the two highest-volume providers accounting for 78% of all new commitments. As such, overall volume changes are primarily driven by the most significant two ECAs in this space. The vast majority of this support is provided to unlock working capital for exporters under “Domestic Export Support” with small amounts being reported under “ST General Domestic Support” – suggesting most ST Domestic Credit support remains tied to a specific international trade contract.

Domestic ST & Export Support continues to expand

Domestic ST & Export support expanded 28% year-on-year – and has seen a consistent expansion of business since 2022. This steady increase in business primarily reflects growing volumes from two ECAs who saw their domestic businesses expand 56% and 210% respectively since 2022. The increase was also impacted by a change in reporting methodology of another ECA which saw their ST General Domestic Support rise above USD 6bn. Adjusting for changes in reporting, the year-on-year expansion would slow to a respectable 15%.

Figure 5.1: ST & Export domestic support, US$ bn

Domestic MLT General Support

Moving to longer-tenor domestic support, which includes products to help companies increase their export capacity, we find a strong year with USD 20.5bn in new commitments across 22 ECAs and lots of innovation in this space.
While this product line continues to be dominated by the top three providers who accounted for 71% of all new commitments in 2025, there has been successful recent product launches that are boosting levels. With significant new programmes launched in 2023 now contributing USD 3.3bn to new business.

ECA capacity deployed in domestic MLT support expands

With the success of recent product launches, outstanding commitments saw a boost in 2025 resulting in an impressive USD 57bn in capacity being deployed under Domestic MLT products. While this amount it significant, but compares modestly to 773bn in ECA cross-border MLT Credit, Domestic MLT deployed capacity is now more than double 2019 levels while cross-border MLT Credit from ECAs has only grown by 14% over the same period.

Figure 5.2: MLT domestic support, US$ bn

 5.2 BOND SUPPORT

In 2025 members provided USD 10.8bn of new Bond Support – 31% higher than the average of new support between 2019-2024. While 2025 marks the first year-on-year fall for new issuances in this product category, primarily due to large defence-related issuances in 2024, Outstanding Commitments saw a smaller drop to a still-impressive USD 32.4bn. Outstanding commitments remain double 2019 volumes with ECAs reporting clients are increasingly seeking this cover.

Figure 5.3: Bond support New and Outstanding commitments, US$ bn

Members report increasing client demand for Bond Support products

Over the last few years, ECAs have commented that some exporters are struggling to participate in larger contracts and/or secure export contracts for new technologies. This has been notable with the rise of complex multi-supplier infrastructure transactions, large defence transactions and transition technologies. Contract/performance bond support can help unlock new business for exporters by mitigating the concerns around fulfilment risk – this is particularly beneficial where the technologies may be new or less-proven.

 5.3 PRE-DELIVERY SUPPORT

Driven by large defence transactions, Pre-Delivery support sees an active period for new cover

While the majority of performance/contract risk protection is delivered through bond instruments, some members cover pre-delivery risk through insurance products – such as export/contract insurance products. As such, the BU maintains a separate category called “Pre-Delivery Support” to group these products. This data has historically been heavily influenced by contract insurance support for large defence transactions and 2025 is no exception.

Figure 5.4: New pre-delivery support, US$ bn

While 2025 may look like a small period for new cover, this is largely due to huge fluctuations in the defence-related support over the period. 2025 saw more members provide this support than anytime before with members commenting they are increasingly seeing clients seek out additional coverage here.

 Section 06

Publications

State of the Industry report 2024

State of the Industry report 2023

State of the Industry report 2022